Georges St. Pierre vs Matt Serra - Can Matt Serra Actually Win this Fight?

Much has been made of the argument that since Matt Serra knocked out Georges St. Pierre once, then he can do it again.

Sure, anything could happen - in the UFC, you are just one punch away from being knocked out and hitting the canvas.

Sure, Matt Serra could win this fight - the better question is: is it likely to happen?

In my opinion, the answer is a definitive no.

Vegas seems to agree with me, as they currently have Georges St. Pierre listed as a massive -500 favorite. Not bad at all, considering that he is fighting one of the two men to ever beat him. Vegas just doesn't put a lot of stock in Serra actually winning this fight.

There are numerous reasons why Serra isn't likely to win this fight (no matter what he says). Here they are:

1. Georges St. Pierre is a much better fighter. Did anyone see St. Pierre's last two matches against Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck? He completely destroyed both of these very accomplished fighters, showing that he can beat anyone with any style of fighting. There is a reason why St. Pierre is considering one of the best fighters in the world.

2. Ring rust. Serra hasn't fought in over a year. Can he overcome the rust?

3. Home town advantage. 21,000 fans completely in your favor? This has to give St. Pierre a big boost in this fight.

The big question is - can St. Pierre overcome the massive pressure that he is likely to feel to win this fight in his hometown? This is the only advantage that Serra has in this fight - he basically has no pressure. If he loses, then he can say that he beat St. Pierre once already. If he wins, then he can say that he has beat arguably the best fighter in the world twice, one coming in St. Pierre's hometown.

Despite that, I still say that St. Pierre crushes Serra in this fight, and crushes him early.

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