St. Pierre A -185 Favorite To Win Against Penn

UFC 94: St. Pierre vs Penn II is scheduled to take place this Saturday (January 31st, 2009) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The UFC marketing machine has done a spectacular job in building up this card, and I agree with Dana White when he says that this card will break the all-time PPV buy record for a UFC event. The amount of awareness for this event is unbelievable. The UFC has been building this fight up for months, sinking millions upon millions of dollars into the promotion of this event. The final PPV buy number will be over-the-top for this card - I wouldn't be surprised to see this card do 1.2 million+ buys.

The main card is loaded with interesting match-ups. The preliminary card contains Jon Fitch, one of the top Welterweights in the world. If that isn't a testament to the strength of this card, then I don't know what is.

Anyways, here are the current odds for the fights on the main card, as well as my predictions:

Stephan Bonnar (-175) vs Jon Jones (+145) - I like Bonnar, I really do. However, taking Bonnar as a favorite when he hasn't fought in over 15 months is not a smart move. I'm thinking that Jones will take advantage of Bonnar and his ring rust, and score a victory. I'm taking Jones +145.

Karo Parisyan (-285) vs Dong Hyun Kim (+225) - I think that Parisyan will get back on track with a victory against Kim. But at -285? There is no way that I am touching Parisyan at -285 - I'm passing on this fight.

Nate Diaz (-130) vs Clay Guida (EVEN) - Don't sleep on this fight - it should be a great one. Guida is one of my favorite fighters, so I am going to pick him to win in a small upset. This should be an absolute war.

Lyoto Machida (-265) vs Thiago Silva (+200) - I just don't see how Silva wins this fight. If Machida outclasses Silva in this fight (as I expect he will), then I don't see how the UFC can avoid giving Machida a shot at the light heavyweight title in 2009. Machida just continues to mow through everyone that is put in front of him, and I expect that Saturday night will be no different. Machida -265.

Georges St. Pierre (-185) vs BJ Penn (+130) - This line has moved a bit since the betting odds for the fight were first released, as St. Pierre was originally a -245 favorite. Many are getting behind Penn in this fight, as they make the argument that St. Pierre doesn't have the "heart" to outlast Penn in a five round war.

The reason that this fight will be so great is that you can make a laundry list of reasons why each fighter should win.

At the end of the day, I believe that St. Pierre is the most well-rounded fighter in the world right now. This will be a long fight, and St. Pierre's edge in conditioning will become more of a factor as the fight gets into the later rounds. Penn will launch an onslaught to begin the fight, looking to hurt St. Pierre early to test his "heart". I believe that St. Pierre will rise to this challenge and win the fight.

Georges St. Pierre (-185)

Other fights from the undercard:

Thiago Tavares (-135) vs Manny Gamburyan (+105)

Chris Wilson (-325) vs John Howard (+250)

Jake O'Brien (-240) vs Christian Wellisch (+165)

Matt Arroyo (-185) vs Dan Cramer (+155)

Jon Fitch (-580) vs Akihiro Gono (+340)