Rashad Evans a +160 Underdog Against Lyoto Machida

When the odds for the Lyoto Machida - Rashad Evans fight (which is scheduled to headline UFC 98 in May) were first released, many people (including myself) were surprised at just how big of a favorite Machida was.

There is no denying that Machida is easily one of the most talented fighters that the UFC has on its roster.

However, having said that - so is Rashad "Sugar" Evans.

As of March 20th, Lyoto Machida is currently a -200 favorite at most online sportsbooks, while Rashad Evans is listed as a +160 underdog.

What does this mean?

It means that you would need to wager $200 on Machida in order to win $100 of profit back (in the event that he won).

On the other hand, a successful $100 wager on "Sugar" would yield you a total profit of $160 if he managed to successfully defend his belt at UFC 98.

While I definitely think that Machida is a favorite in this fight, I don't think that he is THIS big of a favorite to win.

Both fighters are undefeated over the course of their professional careers. Machida is 14-0-0, and has defeated the likes of Thiago Silva, BJ Penn and Tito Ortiz.

Rashad Evans, on the other hand, is 13-0-1, with the draw coming in his fight against Tito Ortiz at UFC 73.

Rashad Evans, in his last three fights, has beaten Michael Bisping, Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin. All three are very formidable opponents, and Rashad Evans went through all three of them.

Both fighters are considered by most to be included in the list of the top 10 pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Yahoo! Sports, for instance, has Rashad Evans as being tied for fifth with BJ Penn, with Lyoto Machida is listed at #7.

Both fighters will come into this fight with extremely sound gameplans as to how they can best beat their opponent. Greg Jackson's extremely detailed and sound gameplans are reaching near-mythical status, and you can be sure that Jackson will try and find a way for Evans to exploit Machida's defensive and counter-attacking style.

In my opinion, Machida should be a slight favorite in this fight - something along the lines of -120 or -125. I have a tough time giving him this much of an edge in his fight against Evans, though I don't doubt that he is one of the top fighters in the world.

It's not often that a challenger will be this big of a favorite against a defending title holder. It's a pretty rare occurrence - the last instance that I can think of is when Georges St. Pierre fought Matt Serra for the Welterweight title at UFC 83 in Montreal.

The odds in this fight are a bit skewed (strictly my opinion of course), and I think that Rashad Evans at +160 offers a fair bit of value. It's certainly hard to bet against a fight who has only lost ONE round on ONE judge's scorecard during his entire career (Machida), but I think that Evans' skillset is being overlooked in this fight. I'll be taking Evans +160 in an upset, which will set up the much-anticipated Jackson/Evans battle later in the year.

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