Do Gamblers Know Something That The General Public Doesn't?

Published on July 29th, 2016 7:57 pm EST

When the odds for the Robbie Lawler vs Tyron Woodley Welterweight title fight opened in early June, Lawler started out as a -280 favorite. This meant that for every $280 that you wanted to bet on Lawler, you would receive $100 in profit back if he managed to successfully defend his title.

Lawler's odds more or less hung around at the -230 to -235 level for a month and a half or so. Over the past week, however, the odds have started to dramatically move in Woodley's favor.

As of this moment, Robbie Lawler is about a -140 favorite, depending on the sports book that you are looking at. This is a pretty major move from the -280 that Lawler was sitting at less than two months ago.

Tyron Woodley, on the other hand, has moved from approximately +200 to +126 or so over the same time period. This means that Woodley is getting pretty close to being a coin flip to wrestle the Welterweight title away from Robbie Lawler.

The MMA King is sitting on the couch and pondering a rapid slide of the betting line for the upcoming UFC walterweight title fight between Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley

It is pretty unusual for such a big move to be made in the lead-up to a title fight, especially with no obvious news having been released. Robbie Lawler appears to be healthy and ready to go, though his odds keep dipping.

Is this just a case where gamblers are seeing tremendous value in Woodley? After all, Woodley is no joke and just might contain the right ingredients to dispose of Robbie Lawler.

Or, is there something more sinister going on? Does somebody know something about Lawler that the rest of the public isn't privy to as of yet?


As mentioned, this is a pretty major move to be made in the week leading up to a title fight. Usually the odds for a title fight will be volatile once the line is first released and then settle in, rarely budging out of a certain range in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

The Lawler/Woodley line, on the other hand, has moved tremendously in Woodley's favor.

What gives?

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