Can Jose Aldo Defeat The "Korean Zombie"?

Published on August 2nd, 2013 9:14 pm EST

UFC 163: Korean Zombie vs Aldo is set to take place at the HSBC Arena in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil this weekend.

As any semi-serious sports gambler will tell you, the secret to doing well when betting on sports is to look for value. When it comes to betting on the UFC, a thorough knowledge of the sport can help you to identify favourites that should really be underdogs, and vice versa.

Having said that, there is not a great deal of value on the main card. The main event and co-main event, which is what we are going to be focusing on in this article, should play out in a straightforward way, and both favourites are favourites for a reason.

Let's start with the Aldo/Jung fight:

Jose Aldo vs Chan Sung Jung

The original fight was supposed to be Aldo vs Pettis, but Pettis was forced to pull out due to injury.

In its place we are left with the less competitive Aldo vs Jung fight. The "Korean Zombie" has thrilled during his time with the UFC, scoring unbelievable wins over the likes of Poirier and Leonard Garcia.

The problem for Jung? He is going to be going up against one of the very best fighters in the world in Jose Aldo. In addition, Aldo will be fighting in front of a hometown crowd. Another troubling point for backers of the "Korean Zombie"? Jose Aldo looks to have had a good cut this time around.

Aldo is just better than the "Korean Zombie" at everything, and I just see no way that Jung wins this fight. There will be some exciting moments, as Jung can take a beating and keep dishing it out, but I would expect Aldo to wear down "KZ" over the course of the fight. I am expecting a lopsided beating with Aldo taking the fight via knockout in Rounds 3-5.

Jose Aldo is currently a -750 favorite to win. If you are uncomfortable betting that line, you may want to skip the fight entirely.

The over/under line is currently sitting at 3.5 rounds:

Over 3.5, +150
Under 3.5, -175

I'll take the OVER in this fight.

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Lyoto Machida vs Phil Davis

This fight, in my opinion, is as big of a mismatch as Aldo/KZ. While Machida is just -355 to win, I see no path that Davis can take to victory.

Davis' game plan will almost certainly be to take Machida down and try to pound him out. The problem? Machida is notoriously hard to catch, let alone take down.

You can expect the fight to go like this: Machida will keep his distance and counter Davis while avoiding takedown attempts. Davis will eventually get frustrated (stop me if you've heard this script before), and Machida will continue to score throughout the second and third rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. I have a hard time imagining Davis catching Machida with anything, whereas I could see Machida flattening Davis, especially in the later rounds of the fight as Davis gets increasingly frustrated.

I'm expecting a dominant performance from Machida in this fight, and I am expecting that the fans will be underwhelmed by the performance.

Pick: Lyoto Machida, -350


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